Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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PT Kalbe Farma Tbk. (KLBF.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,245.15 - $15,033.91$7,294.80
Multi-Stage$2,466.58 - $2,703.31$2,582.74
Blended Fair Value$4,938.77
Current Price$1,130.00
Upside337.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.31%6.05%31.4538.5535.7828.7926.7326.7325.7022.6219.5319.53
YoY Growth---18.42%7.75%24.30%7.69%0.00%4.00%13.64%15.79%0.00%11.76%
Dividend Yield--2.77%2.63%1.70%1.79%1.70%2.23%1.72%1.51%1.27%1.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,493,602.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,635,802.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,857,800.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)698,720.57436,700.36262,020.21
Cash Retained (M)1,857,800.361,857,800.361,857,800.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-698,720.57-436,700.36-262,020.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,159,079.781,421,100.001,595,780.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)45,591.8445,591.8445,591.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share25.4231.1735.00
LTM Dividend per Share35.8835.8835.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share25.4231.1735.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend61.3067.0570.88
WACC / Discount Rate6.02%6.02%6.02%
Growth Rate4.05%5.05%6.05%
Fair Value$3,245.15$7,294.80$15,033.91
Upside / Downside187.18%545.56%1,230.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,493,602.863,670,055.383,855,420.054,050,146.994,254,709.064,469,603.024,603,691.11
Payout Ratio46.82%55.46%64.09%72.73%81.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,635,802.502,035,347.972,471,080.472,945,636.183,461,825.274,022,642.724,258,414.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.02%6.02%6.02%
Growth Rate4.05%5.05%6.05%
Year 1 PV (M)1,901,569.081,919,844.491,938,119.89
Year 2 PV (M)2,156,918.652,198,576.862,240,633.51
Year 3 PV (M)2,402,146.122,472,072.772,543,343.47
Year 4 PV (M)2,637,539.052,740,404.502,846,249.86
Year 5 PV (M)2,863,377.823,003,643.403,149,352.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)100,494,305.84105,417,125.61110,531,002.25
Equity Value (M)112,455,856.57117,751,667.63123,248,701.75
Shares Outstanding (M)45,591.8445,591.8445,591.84
Fair Value$2,466.58$2,582.74$2,703.31
Upside / Downside118.28%128.56%139.23%

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