Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Kiatnakin Phatra Bank Public Company Limited (KKP.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$91.49 - $168.41$123.20
Multi-Stage$134.55 - $147.47$140.89
Blended Fair Value$132.05
Current Price$45.25
Upside191.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.79%3.47%3.052.794.013.052.794.575.086.104.062.38
YoY Growth--9.09%-30.35%31.60%9.09%-38.89%-10.00%-16.67%50.00%70.49%10.01%
Dividend Yield--5.59%5.30%6.34%4.42%4.58%11.72%7.33%8.32%5.85%5.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,226.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,334.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,892.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,045.39653.37392.02
Cash Retained (M)1,892.311,892.311,892.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,045.39-653.37-392.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)846.921,238.941,500.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)833.52833.52833.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.021.491.80
LTM Dividend per Share4.004.004.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.021.491.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.025.495.80
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate1.47%2.47%3.47%
Fair Value$91.49$123.20$168.41
Upside / Downside102.19%172.26%272.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,226.965,356.095,488.425,624.015,762.965,905.346,082.50
Payout Ratio63.80%69.04%74.28%79.52%84.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,334.653,697.724,076.704,472.154,884.655,314.805,626.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate1.47%2.47%3.47%
Year 1 PV (M)3,420.993,454.703,488.42
Year 2 PV (M)3,489.343,558.463,628.25
Year 3 PV (M)3,541.353,647.083,754.90
Year 4 PV (M)3,578.523,721.683,869.10
Year 5 PV (M)3,602.253,783.293,971.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)94,520.2299,270.45104,209.77
Equity Value (M)112,152.67117,435.66122,921.97
Shares Outstanding (M)833.52833.52833.52
Fair Value$134.55$140.89$147.47
Upside / Downside197.36%211.36%225.91%

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