Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Sector

PT Kino Indonesia Tbk (KINO.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$437.71 - $584.52$513.55
Multi-Stage$677.95 - $741.30$709.02
Blended Fair Value$611.28
Current Price$1,195.00
Upside-48.85%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-17.38%-3.07%22.730.7310.0024.87106.7259.0627.9725.9038.340.00
YoY Growth--2,996.34%-92.66%-59.78%-76.70%80.70%111.11%8.00%-32.43%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--2.05%0.05%0.66%0.73%5.16%2.94%1.10%1.31%1.53%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)137,117.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)77,453.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)59,664.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27,423.5317,139.7110,283.82
Cash Retained (M)59,664.0659,664.0659,664.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-27,423.53-17,139.71-10,283.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)32,240.5342,524.3549,380.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,378.821,378.821,378.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share23.3830.8435.81
LTM Dividend per Share56.1756.1756.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share23.3830.8435.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend79.5687.0291.99
WACC / Discount Rate12.19%12.19%12.19%
Growth Rate-5.07%-4.07%-3.07%
Fair Value$437.71$513.55$584.52
Upside / Downside-63.37%-57.03%-51.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)137,117.67131,538.15126,185.68121,051.01116,125.28111,399.97114,741.97
Payout Ratio56.49%63.19%69.89%76.59%83.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)77,453.6083,118.3988,193.9292,718.7696,729.33100,259.98106,136.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate12.19%12.19%12.19%
Growth Rate-5.07%-4.07%-3.07%
Year 1 PV (M)73,318.0274,090.3574,862.68
Year 2 PV (M)68,622.3970,075.7471,544.32
Year 3 PV (M)63,636.8165,669.1267,744.24
Year 4 PV (M)58,561.5561,068.3663,654.80
Year 5 PV (M)53,542.1256,422.2259,424.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)617,084.17650,277.93684,885.00
Equity Value (M)934,765.05977,603.711,022,115.98
Shares Outstanding (M)1,378.821,378.821,378.82
Fair Value$677.95$709.02$741.30
Upside / Downside-43.27%-40.67%-37.97%

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