Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

Sector

Kemira Oyj (KEMIRA.HE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$234.34 - $276.31$258.84
Multi-Stage$316.32 - $348.53$332.11
Blended Fair Value$295.47
Current Price$19.67
Upside1,402.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.29%1.99%0.670.610.570.610.550.520.560.560.560.56
YoY Growth--9.98%7.09%-6.72%11.20%5.93%-7.33%0.46%0.46%-0.12%0.70%
Dividend Yield--3.36%3.50%3.53%5.17%4.22%5.90%5.01%5.38%4.84%5.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)224.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)112.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)112.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)44.9228.0816.85
Cash Retained (M)112.60112.60112.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-44.92-28.08-16.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)67.6884.5395.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)155.30155.30155.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.440.540.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.720.720.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.440.540.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.161.271.34
WACC / Discount Rate-13.73%-13.73%-13.73%
Growth Rate1.27%2.27%3.27%
Fair Value$234.34$258.84$276.31
Upside / Downside1,091.35%1,215.91%1,304.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)224.60229.70234.92240.25245.71251.29258.83
Payout Ratio49.87%57.89%65.92%73.95%81.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)112.00132.98154.86177.66201.42226.16239.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-13.73%-13.73%-13.73%
Growth Rate1.27%2.27%3.27%
Year 1 PV (M)152.64154.14155.65
Year 2 PV (M)204.02208.07212.16
Year 3 PV (M)268.66276.70284.89
Year 4 PV (M)349.61363.62378.05
Year 5 PV (M)450.58473.27496.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)47,698.9350,100.9152,598.69
Equity Value (M)49,124.4351,576.7154,126.31
Shares Outstanding (M)155.30155.30155.30
Fair Value$316.32$332.11$348.53
Upside / Downside1,508.13%1,588.41%1,671.87%

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