Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk (JSMR.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13,848.79 - $42,343.00$22,077.19
Multi-Stage$14,824.62 - $16,250.89$15,524.39
Blended Fair Value$18,800.79
Current Price$3,480.00
Upside440.25%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.17%-2.31%58.5676.480.020.0015.2145.5260.6378.0940.4167.68
YoY Growth---23.44%374,970.27%0.00%-100.00%-66.60%-24.92%-22.36%93.26%-40.29%-8.55%
Dividend Yield--1.47%1.35%0.00%0.00%0.38%1.79%1.03%1.71%0.87%1.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,963,713.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,863,914.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,099,799.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)792,742.60495,464.13297,278.48
Cash Retained (M)2,099,799.002,099,799.002,099,799.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-792,742.60-495,464.13-297,278.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,307,056.401,604,334.881,802,520.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,257.877,257.877,257.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share180.09221.05248.35
LTM Dividend per Share256.81256.81256.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share180.09221.05248.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend436.90477.86505.17
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate3.17%4.17%5.17%
Fair Value$13,848.79$22,077.19$42,343.00
Upside / Downside297.95%534.40%1,116.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,963,713.004,128,822.794,300,810.284,479,961.984,666,576.294,860,964.095,006,793.01
Payout Ratio47.02%55.62%64.21%72.81%81.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,863,914.002,296,432.872,761,750.983,261,850.353,798,821.244,374,867.684,631,283.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate3.17%4.17%5.17%
Year 1 PV (M)2,137,176.012,157,892.002,178,607.99
Year 2 PV (M)2,391,980.252,438,576.692,485,622.62
Year 3 PV (M)2,629,200.122,706,399.382,785,095.20
Year 4 PV (M)2,849,672.852,961,779.083,077,160.92
Year 5 PV (M)3,054,200.943,205,122.823,361,952.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)94,532,953.4199,204,254.31104,058,420.89
Equity Value (M)107,595,183.58112,674,024.28117,946,860.42
Shares Outstanding (M)7,257.877,257.877,257.87
Fair Value$14,824.62$15,524.39$16,250.89
Upside / Downside325.99%346.10%366.98%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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