Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$533.14 - $1,621.23$848.54
Multi-Stage$353.26 - $386.00$369.33
Blended Fair Value$608.94
Current Price$315.43
Upside93.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.67%7.78%5.254.794.824.574.514.393.593.203.012.80
YoY Growth--9.80%-0.73%5.48%1.32%2.81%22.10%12.41%6.10%7.66%12.63%
Dividend Yield--2.14%2.41%3.70%3.35%2.96%4.87%3.43%2.91%3.43%4.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)58,028.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16,066.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)41,962.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11,605.607,253.504,352.10
Cash Retained (M)41,962.0041,962.0041,962.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-11,605.60-7,253.50-4,352.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)30,356.4034,708.5037,609.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,813.532,813.532,813.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share10.7912.3413.37
LTM Dividend per Share5.715.715.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share10.7912.3413.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend16.5018.0519.08
WACC / Discount Rate8.77%8.77%8.77%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$533.14$848.54$1,621.23
Upside / Downside69.02%169.01%413.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)58,028.0061,799.8265,816.8170,094.9074,651.0779,503.3981,888.49
Payout Ratio27.69%40.15%52.61%65.07%77.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16,066.0024,812.2034,627.5345,614.0157,882.4471,553.0575,746.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.77%8.77%8.77%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)22,598.4622,812.6723,026.87
Year 2 PV (M)28,724.2629,271.3729,823.65
Year 3 PV (M)34,461.9035,451.1836,459.21
Year 4 PV (M)39,829.1941,360.9142,936.39
Year 5 PV (M)44,843.1847,009.1349,257.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)823,441.96863,214.52904,509.26
Equity Value (M)993,898.961,039,119.781,086,013.35
Shares Outstanding (M)2,813.532,813.532,813.53
Fair Value$353.26$369.33$386.00
Upside / Downside11.99%17.09%22.37%

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