Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk (JPFA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29,914.82 - $57,030.03$53,445.49
Multi-Stage$8,976.62 - $9,823.32$9,392.20
Blended Fair Value$31,418.85
Current Price$1,960.00
Upside1,503.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.11%22.64%70.4349.9762.3542.0522.2254.8999.4146.0920.610.00
YoY Growth--40.95%-19.86%48.29%89.22%-59.52%-44.78%115.70%123.66%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--3.50%4.22%5.54%2.55%1.16%5.78%5.63%3.11%1.33%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,334,388.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,632,874.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,701,514.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)666,877.60416,798.50250,079.10
Cash Retained (M)1,701,514.001,701,514.001,701,514.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-666,877.60-416,798.50-250,079.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,034,636.401,284,715.501,451,434.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11,627.6711,627.6711,627.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share88.98110.49124.83
LTM Dividend per Share140.43140.43140.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share88.98110.49124.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend229.41250.92265.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$29,914.82$53,445.49$57,030.03
Upside / Downside1,426.27%2,626.81%2,809.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,334,388.003,551,123.223,781,946.234,027,772.734,289,577.964,568,400.534,705,452.55
Payout Ratio48.97%57.18%65.38%73.59%81.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,632,874.002,030,410.832,472,728.552,963,969.093,508,623.624,111,560.484,352,543.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,891,979.841,909,913.301,927,846.75
Year 2 PV (M)2,147,047.292,187,942.512,229,223.53
Year 3 PV (M)2,398,122.812,466,964.302,537,110.80
Year 4 PV (M)2,645,252.402,746,981.342,851,616.60
Year 5 PV (M)2,888,481.563,027,996.303,172,850.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)92,406,327.6596,869,587.83101,503,667.48
Equity Value (M)104,377,211.54109,209,385.57114,222,315.77
Shares Outstanding (M)11,627.6711,627.6711,627.67
Fair Value$8,976.62$9,392.20$9,823.32
Upside / Downside357.99%379.19%401.19%

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