Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Juniper Networks, Inc. (JNPR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.54 - $16.60$13.32
Multi-Stage$17.08 - $18.69$17.87
Blended Fair Value$15.59
Current Price$36.19
Upside-56.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.10%12.87%0.860.830.800.770.780.770.740.450.450.46
YoY Growth--2.78%3.85%4.36%-1.89%1.54%4.33%65.76%-1.38%-2.43%81.74%
Dividend Yield--2.37%2.25%2.33%2.07%3.10%4.04%2.72%1.84%1.63%1.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)352.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)290.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)62.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)70.5644.1026.46
Cash Retained (M)62.2062.2062.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-70.56-44.10-26.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)-8.3618.1035.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)336.48336.48336.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.050.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.860.860.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.050.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.840.920.97
WACC / Discount Rate8.07%8.07%8.07%
Growth Rate0.10%1.10%2.10%
Fair Value$10.54$13.32$16.60
Upside / Downside-70.87%-63.20%-54.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)352.80356.69360.61364.58368.60372.66383.84
Payout Ratio82.37%83.90%85.42%86.95%88.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)290.60299.24308.04317.00326.11335.39355.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.07%8.07%8.07%
Growth Rate0.10%1.10%2.10%
Year 1 PV (M)274.17276.91279.65
Year 2 PV (M)258.58263.77269.02
Year 3 PV (M)243.80251.18258.71
Year 4 PV (M)229.79239.12248.72
Year 5 PV (M)216.53227.56239.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,524.294,754.844,994.69
Equity Value (M)5,747.166,013.386,289.82
Shares Outstanding (M)336.48336.48336.48
Fair Value$17.08$17.87$18.69
Upside / Downside-52.80%-50.62%-48.35%

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