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Definitive Analysis

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J&J Snack Foods Corp. (JJSF)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$183.46 - $667.03$575.62
Multi-Stage$88.13 - $96.20$92.09
Blended Fair Value$333.86
Current Price$95.61
Upside249.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.63%8.79%3.112.912.752.482.292.151.871.691.581.46
YoY Growth--6.66%5.72%11.23%8.15%6.50%14.76%10.82%7.15%8.19%9.06%
Dividend Yield--3.25%1.86%1.65%1.61%1.47%1.37%1.00%1.18%1.04%1.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)65.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)60.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.128.204.92
Cash Retained (M)4.844.844.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.12-8.20-4.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)-8.28-3.36-0.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19.5619.5619.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.42-0.170.00
LTM Dividend per Share3.113.113.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.42-0.170.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.682.933.10
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$183.46$575.62$667.03
Upside / Downside91.89%502.05%597.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)65.6069.8674.4079.2484.3989.8792.57
Payout Ratio92.62%92.09%91.57%91.05%90.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)60.7564.3368.1372.1476.3980.8885.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)59.5460.1060.67
Year 2 PV (M)58.3559.4660.58
Year 3 PV (M)57.1858.8260.49
Year 4 PV (M)56.0358.1860.40
Year 5 PV (M)54.9057.5560.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,437.541,506.971,579.06
Equity Value (M)1,723.531,801.081,881.50
Shares Outstanding (M)19.5619.5619.56
Fair Value$88.13$92.09$96.20
Upside / Downside-7.83%-3.68%0.62%

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