Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Indian Railway Finance Corporation Limited (IRFC.BO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$884.48 - $1,042.07$976.57
Multi-Stage$335.89 - $368.38$351.83
Blended Fair Value$664.20
Current Price$123.51
Upside437.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS71.94%30.25%2.301.501.430.771.440.150.290.180.510.12
YoY Growth--53.33%4.90%85.71%-46.25%836.10%-46.67%60.58%-65.03%339.35%-28.96%
Dividend Yield--1.63%0.87%4.38%3.93%5.78%0.62%1.16%0.72%2.06%0.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)68,352.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20,909.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)47,442.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13,670.408,544.005,126.40
Cash Retained (M)47,442.4047,442.4047,442.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-13,670.40-8,544.00-5,126.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)33,772.0038,898.4042,316.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13,044.7713,044.7713,044.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.592.983.24
LTM Dividend per Share1.601.601.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.592.983.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.194.584.85
WACC / Discount Rate4.64%4.64%4.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$884.48$976.57$1,042.07
Upside / Downside616.12%690.68%743.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)68,352.0072,794.8877,526.5582,565.7787,932.5593,648.1696,457.61
Payout Ratio30.59%42.47%54.35%66.24%78.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20,909.6030,918.0642,139.2754,688.6168,691.3384,283.3589,223.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.64%4.64%4.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)29,270.8829,548.3329,825.78
Year 2 PV (M)37,768.8938,488.2939,214.46
Year 3 PV (M)46,405.3247,737.4549,094.84
Year 4 PV (M)55,181.8757,304.0159,486.78
Year 5 PV (M)64,100.2867,196.3470,410.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,148,917.324,349,311.584,557,375.40
Equity Value (M)4,381,644.584,589,586.014,805,408.17
Shares Outstanding (M)13,044.7713,044.7713,044.77
Fair Value$335.89$351.83$368.38
Upside / Downside171.96%184.86%198.26%

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