Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Iluka Resources Limited (ILU.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.79 - $9.59$8.18
Multi-Stage$11.23 - $12.36$11.78
Blended Fair Value$9.98
Current Price$3.80
Upside162.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-19.58%-2.16%0.080.220.340.130.080.230.250.060.210.18
YoY Growth---65.36%-33.92%164.98%69.94%-67.37%-7.76%331.47%-72.75%15.85%90.19%
Dividend Yield--1.54%3.40%3.56%1.27%1.16%4.96%6.57%1.14%5.85%5.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)462.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)63.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)399.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)92.4257.7634.66
Cash Retained (M)399.00399.00399.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-92.42-57.76-34.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)306.58341.24364.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)432.76432.76432.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.710.790.84
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.710.790.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.850.930.99
WACC / Discount Rate9.18%9.18%9.18%
Growth Rate-3.02%-2.02%-1.02%
Fair Value$6.79$8.18$9.59
Upside / Downside78.79%115.22%152.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)462.10452.78443.64434.69425.92417.33429.85
Payout Ratio13.66%28.92%44.19%59.46%74.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)63.10130.96196.06258.48318.30375.60397.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.18%9.18%9.18%
Growth Rate-3.02%-2.02%-1.02%
Year 1 PV (M)118.73119.95121.18
Year 2 PV (M)161.15164.49167.86
Year 3 PV (M)192.61198.63204.77
Year 4 PV (M)215.03224.03233.32
Year 5 PV (M)230.04242.15254.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,942.774,150.284,366.43
Equity Value (M)4,860.325,099.535,348.32
Shares Outstanding (M)432.76432.76432.76
Fair Value$11.23$11.78$12.36
Upside / Downside195.55%210.10%225.23%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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