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Definitive Analysis

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Huatai Securities Co., Ltd. (HTSC.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$120.30 - $389.30$364.83
Multi-Stage$52.80 - $57.70$55.20
Blended Fair Value$210.01
Current Price$157.59
Upside33.27%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.99%21.86%1.431.681.160.400.300.680.800.810.850.57
YoY Growth---14.79%44.81%187.89%33.73%-55.80%-14.45%-1.38%-4.91%48.91%187.77%
Dividend Yield--0.89%1.05%0.84%0.27%0.17%0.40%0.56%0.60%0.58%0.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)17,589.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12,074.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,514.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,517.982,198.741,319.24
Cash Retained (M)5,514.945,514.945,514.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,517.98-2,198.74-1,319.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,996.963,316.204,195.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,985.938,985.938,985.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.370.47
LTM Dividend per Share1.341.341.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.370.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.571.711.81
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$120.30$364.83$389.30
Upside / Downside-23.66%131.50%147.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)17,589.9118,733.2519,950.9121,247.7222,628.8224,099.6924,822.69
Payout Ratio68.65%72.92%77.19%81.46%85.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12,074.9613,659.8515,399.7617,308.1519,399.5621,689.7322,960.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)12,661.3412,781.3512,901.37
Year 2 PV (M)13,230.6613,482.6613,737.05
Year 3 PV (M)13,783.2514,178.9214,582.09
Year 4 PV (M)14,319.4614,870.1515,436.56
Year 5 PV (M)14,839.6115,556.3716,300.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)405,582.82425,172.62445,512.17
Equity Value (M)474,417.14496,042.08518,469.80
Shares Outstanding (M)8,985.938,985.938,985.93
Fair Value$52.80$55.20$57.70
Upside / Downside-66.50%-64.97%-63.39%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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