Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Heritage Commerce Corp (HTBK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.10 - $63.27$31.12
Multi-Stage$13.02 - $14.19$13.59
Blended Fair Value$22.36
Current Price$9.93
Upside125.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.99%18.66%0.520.510.510.510.500.370.300.250.220.17
YoY Growth--0.37%0.78%0.72%0.61%36.77%23.07%21.17%11.82%26.90%86.49%
Dividend Yield--5.43%6.12%6.13%4.51%4.12%4.80%2.44%1.50%1.57%1.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)43.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.675.423.25
Cash Retained (M)11.4211.4211.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.67-5.42-3.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.756.008.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)61.6761.6761.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.100.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.100.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.610.65
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$19.10$31.12$63.27
Upside / Downside92.39%213.35%537.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)43.3346.1549.1552.3555.7559.3761.15
Payout Ratio73.66%76.93%80.19%83.46%86.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.9235.5039.4243.6948.3553.4356.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)32.3832.6933.00
Year 2 PV (M)32.7933.4234.05
Year 3 PV (M)33.1534.1135.08
Year 4 PV (M)33.4734.7536.08
Year 5 PV (M)33.7435.3737.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)637.23668.01699.96
Equity Value (M)802.76838.34875.22
Shares Outstanding (M)61.6761.6761.67
Fair Value$13.02$13.59$14.19
Upside / Downside31.09%36.90%42.93%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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