Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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HealthStream, Inc. (HSTM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Healthcare Information ServicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.68 - $31.29$19.94
Multi-Stage$13.36 - $14.64$13.99
Blended Fair Value$16.96
Current Price$28.24
Upside-39.94%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS125.78%0.00%0.110.100.000.000.000.001.070.000.000.00
YoY Growth--11.28%0.00%-100.00%-52.50%-31.03%-99.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.35%0.39%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.01%3.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)17.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.142.591.55
Cash Retained (M)17.0417.0417.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.14-2.59-1.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.9014.4515.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)30.3730.3730.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.480.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.480.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.600.63
WACC / Discount Rate7.63%7.63%7.63%
Growth Rate3.50%4.50%5.50%
Fair Value$13.68$19.94$31.29
Upside / Downside-51.57%-29.40%10.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20.7021.6322.6023.6224.6825.7926.57
Payout Ratio17.69%32.15%46.61%61.08%75.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.666.9510.5414.4318.6523.2224.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.63%7.63%7.63%
Growth Rate3.50%4.50%5.50%
Year 1 PV (M)6.406.466.52
Year 2 PV (M)8.929.109.27
Year 3 PV (M)11.2411.5711.91
Year 4 PV (M)13.3713.9014.43
Year 5 PV (M)15.3216.0716.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)350.40367.66385.59
Equity Value (M)405.65424.75444.58
Shares Outstanding (M)30.3730.3730.37
Fair Value$13.36$13.99$14.64
Upside / Downside-52.70%-50.48%-48.17%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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