Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hanover Bancorp, Inc. (HNVR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.75 - $21.05$17.16
Multi-Stage$29.30 - $32.27$30.76
Blended Fair Value$23.96
Current Price$22.45
Upside6.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.400.390.270.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--1.06%43.44%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.82%2.25%1.35%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.271.420.85
Cash Retained (M)8.378.378.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.27-1.42-0.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.106.957.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.437.437.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.820.941.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.820.941.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.221.341.41
WACC / Discount Rate6.72%6.72%6.72%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$13.75$17.16$21.05
Upside / Downside-38.76%-23.57%-6.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11.3611.2411.1311.0210.9110.8011.12
Payout Ratio26.32%39.05%51.79%64.53%77.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.994.395.767.118.439.7210.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.72%6.72%6.72%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)4.074.114.16
Year 2 PV (M)4.965.065.16
Year 3 PV (M)5.675.856.03
Year 4 PV (M)6.246.506.77
Year 5 PV (M)6.677.027.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)190.01199.91210.21
Equity Value (M)217.64228.46239.71
Shares Outstanding (M)7.437.437.43
Fair Value$29.30$30.76$32.27
Upside / Downside30.51%37.00%43.74%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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