Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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HCI Group, Inc. (HCI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$537.49 - $3,141.90$987.81
Multi-Stage$312.32 - $341.82$326.80
Blended Fair Value$657.30
Current Price$191.93
Upside242.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.99%3.00%1.301.071.191.100.991.020.891.090.970.97
YoY Growth--20.99%-9.94%8.30%10.80%-2.44%14.97%-18.61%11.80%0.08%0.59%
Dividend Yield--0.87%0.93%2.22%1.61%1.29%2.53%2.09%2.85%2.13%2.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)203.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)185.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.7925.4915.30
Cash Retained (M)185.58185.58185.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.79-25.49-15.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)144.80160.09170.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12.7812.7812.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share11.3312.5213.32
LTM Dividend per Share1.441.441.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share11.3312.5213.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.7613.9614.76
WACC / Discount Rate8.00%8.00%8.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$537.49$987.81$3,141.90
Upside / Downside180.04%414.67%1,537.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)203.94217.19231.31246.34262.36279.41287.79
Payout Ratio9.00%25.20%41.40%57.60%73.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.3554.7395.76141.89193.62251.47266.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.00%8.00%8.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)50.2050.6751.15
Year 2 PV (M)80.5682.0983.64
Year 3 PV (M)109.48112.62115.83
Year 4 PV (M)137.02142.29147.71
Year 5 PV (M)163.22171.11179.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,452.433,619.193,792.32
Equity Value (M)3,992.914,177.974,369.94
Shares Outstanding (M)12.7812.7812.78
Fair Value$312.32$326.80$341.82
Upside / Downside62.73%70.27%78.09%

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