Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Home Bancorp, Inc. (HBCP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$165.97 - $663.09$283.03
Multi-Stage$102.95 - $112.58$107.68
Blended Fair Value$195.35
Current Price$54.33
Upside259.57%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.73%32.29%1.031.030.980.990.990.990.840.510.380.27
YoY Growth---0.40%5.72%-1.14%-0.46%0.06%17.78%64.77%36.21%38.20%333.44%
Dividend Yield--2.30%2.79%2.96%2.43%2.76%4.07%2.42%1.19%1.11%1.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)44.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)35.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.865.543.32
Cash Retained (M)35.6635.6635.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.86-5.54-3.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.8030.1232.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.957.957.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.373.794.07
LTM Dividend per Share1.091.091.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.373.794.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.464.885.16
WACC / Discount Rate8.34%8.34%8.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$165.97$283.03$663.09
Upside / Downside205.48%420.95%1,120.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)44.3247.2150.2753.5457.0260.7362.55
Payout Ratio19.54%33.63%47.72%61.82%75.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.6615.8823.9933.1043.2854.6557.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.34%8.34%8.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)14.5214.6514.79
Year 2 PV (M)20.0620.4420.83
Year 3 PV (M)25.3026.0326.77
Year 4 PV (M)30.2631.4232.62
Year 5 PV (M)34.9436.6238.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)693.04726.51761.27
Equity Value (M)818.11855.68894.65
Shares Outstanding (M)7.957.957.95
Fair Value$102.95$107.68$112.58
Upside / Downside89.49%98.19%107.22%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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