Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Haynes International, Inc. (HAYN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.37 - $38.22$31.44
Multi-Stage$35.94 - $39.40$37.64
Blended Fair Value$34.54
Current Price$58.65
Upside-41.11%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS0.32%0.31%0.870.860.870.860.860.860.860.860.850.85
YoY Growth--1.08%-0.92%1.06%0.43%-0.02%0.04%0.19%0.33%0.42%0.53%
Dividend Yield--1.53%1.89%2.16%3.61%2.40%3.25%2.68%1.99%2.33%1.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)37.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)26.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.504.692.81
Cash Retained (M)26.1926.1926.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.50-4.69-2.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.6921.5023.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12.8312.8312.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.461.681.82
LTM Dividend per Share0.880.880.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.461.681.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.342.562.70
WACC / Discount Rate9.24%9.24%9.24%
Growth Rate0.03%1.03%2.03%
Fair Value$25.37$31.44$38.22
Upside / Downside-56.74%-46.39%-34.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)37.5137.8938.2838.6739.0739.4740.65
Payout Ratio30.16%42.13%54.10%66.07%78.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.3115.9620.7125.5530.4935.5237.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.24%9.24%9.24%
Growth Rate0.03%1.03%2.03%
Year 1 PV (M)14.4714.6114.76
Year 2 PV (M)17.0117.3517.70
Year 3 PV (M)19.0219.6020.19
Year 4 PV (M)20.5721.4122.27
Year 5 PV (M)21.7222.8323.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)368.40387.19406.74
Equity Value (M)461.20482.99505.63
Shares Outstanding (M)12.8312.8312.83
Fair Value$35.94$37.64$39.40
Upside / Downside-38.72%-35.83%-32.82%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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