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Definitive Analysis

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Great-West Lifeco Inc. (GWO-PN.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$109.42 - $316.07$171.64
Multi-Stage$112.33 - $123.05$117.59
Blended Fair Value$144.62
Current Price$17.75
Upside714.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.82%5.36%2.222.081.961.801.741.671.651.561.471.39
YoY Growth--6.81%6.08%8.88%3.14%4.30%1.37%5.85%6.14%5.47%5.70%
Dividend Yield--13.77%14.47%16.09%11.05%11.57%18.71%11.14%8.36%9.17%10.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,172.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,215.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,957.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)834.40521.50312.90
Cash Retained (M)1,957.001,957.001,957.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-834.40-521.50-312.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,122.601,435.501,644.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)933.08933.08933.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.201.541.76
LTM Dividend per Share2.372.372.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.201.541.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.583.914.14
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate3.36%4.36%5.36%
Fair Value$109.42$171.64$316.07
Upside / Downside516.47%866.99%1,680.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,172.004,353.704,543.324,741.194,947.685,163.165,318.06
Payout Ratio53.09%60.47%67.86%75.24%82.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,215.002,632.843,082.883,567.124,087.694,646.854,919.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate3.36%4.36%5.36%
Year 1 PV (M)2,443.102,466.732,490.37
Year 2 PV (M)2,654.532,706.152,758.26
Year 3 PV (M)2,850.142,933.673,018.81
Year 4 PV (M)3,030.693,149.703,272.18
Year 5 PV (M)3,196.973,354.653,518.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)90,638.6795,109.1599,754.32
Equity Value (M)104,814.09109,720.05114,812.43
Shares Outstanding (M)933.08933.08933.08
Fair Value$112.33$117.59$123.05
Upside / Downside532.85%562.48%593.22%

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