Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Gunanusa Eramandiri Tbk. (GUNA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$174.83 - $247.17$210.59
Multi-Stage$262.38 - $287.88$274.88
Blended Fair Value$242.74
Current Price$268.00
Upside-9.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.008.643.245.760.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%166.36%-43.74%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%4.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)65,688.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17,949.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)47,738.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13,137.618,211.004,926.60
Cash Retained (M)47,738.5547,738.5547,738.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-13,137.61-8,211.00-4,926.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)34,600.9439,527.5442,811.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,437.502,437.502,437.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share14.2016.2217.56
LTM Dividend per Share7.367.367.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share14.2016.2217.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend21.5623.5824.93
WACC / Discount Rate10.09%10.09%10.09%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$174.83$210.59$247.17
Upside / Downside-34.77%-21.42%-7.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)65,688.0365,031.1564,380.8363,737.0363,099.6662,468.6664,342.72
Payout Ratio27.33%39.86%52.40%64.93%77.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17,949.4825,921.5933,732.4741,384.5448,880.1956,221.7959,517.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.09%10.09%10.09%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)23,309.0023,546.8523,784.70
Year 2 PV (M)27,275.4727,834.9528,400.11
Year 3 PV (M)30,090.1431,020.7031,970.25
Year 4 PV (M)31,958.1133,282.6234,647.88
Year 5 PV (M)33,053.3034,774.4636,566.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)493,856.21519,572.45546,348.99
Equity Value (M)639,542.23670,032.04701,718.52
Shares Outstanding (M)2,437.502,437.502,437.50
Fair Value$262.38$274.88$287.88
Upside / Downside-2.10%2.57%7.42%

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