Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Gray Media, Inc. (GTN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BroadcastingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.24 - $47.23$29.70
Multi-Stage$14.59 - $15.93$15.25
Blended Fair Value$22.48
Current Price$4.53
Upside396.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.330.310.310.320.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--6.67%0.00%-3.23%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.64%5.14%3.55%1.45%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)94.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)62.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.8011.757.05
Cash Retained (M)62.0062.0062.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.80-11.75-7.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)43.2050.2554.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)97.0097.0097.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.520.57
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.520.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.850.90
WACC / Discount Rate9.54%9.54%9.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20.24$29.70$47.23
Upside / Downside346.89%555.71%942.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)94.00100.11106.62113.55120.93128.79132.65
Payout Ratio34.04%45.23%56.43%67.62%78.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.0045.2860.1676.7895.30115.91122.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.54%9.54%9.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)40.9541.3441.73
Year 2 PV (M)49.2050.1451.08
Year 3 PV (M)56.7858.4160.07
Year 4 PV (M)63.7466.1968.71
Year 5 PV (M)70.1173.4977.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,134.781,189.591,246.49
Equity Value (M)1,415.561,479.161,545.10
Shares Outstanding (M)97.0097.0097.00
Fair Value$14.59$15.25$15.93
Upside / Downside222.15%236.62%251.63%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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