Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Great Southern Bancorp, Inc. (GSBC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$101.86 - $203.29$141.44
Multi-Stage$107.36 - $117.60$112.38
Blended Fair Value$126.91
Current Price$61.25
Upside107.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.43%5.21%1.621.671.661.632.892.521.371.121.061.06
YoY Growth---2.98%0.53%2.03%-43.76%15.06%83.65%22.68%5.41%-0.47%9.18%
Dividend Yield--2.93%3.16%3.28%2.76%5.11%6.23%2.57%2.24%2.10%2.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)69.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)51.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.928.705.22
Cash Retained (M)51.0751.0751.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.92-8.70-5.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)37.1542.3745.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.5511.5511.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.223.673.97
LTM Dividend per Share1.611.611.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.223.673.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.825.285.58
WACC / Discount Rate8.03%8.03%8.03%
Growth Rate3.14%4.14%5.14%
Fair Value$101.86$141.44$203.29
Upside / Downside66.29%130.92%231.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)69.6272.5075.5178.6481.8985.2987.85
Payout Ratio26.64%39.31%51.99%64.66%77.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.5528.5039.2550.8463.3376.7681.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.03%8.03%8.03%
Growth Rate3.14%4.14%5.14%
Year 1 PV (M)26.1326.3926.64
Year 2 PV (M)32.9933.6434.29
Year 3 PV (M)39.1840.3341.50
Year 4 PV (M)44.7446.5048.31
Year 5 PV (M)49.7252.1754.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,046.841,098.591,152.35
Equity Value (M)1,239.611,297.611,357.82
Shares Outstanding (M)11.5511.5511.55
Fair Value$107.36$112.38$117.60
Upside / Downside75.28%83.48%92.00%

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