Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.44 - $40.58$30.80
Multi-Stage$41.55 - $45.71$43.59
Blended Fair Value$37.20
Current Price$2.33
Upside1,496.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-2.18%4.50%0.210.200.220.210.200.230.210.190.190.15
YoY Growth--2.48%-5.54%3.11%2.01%-12.02%10.65%9.48%3.43%22.44%13.05%
Dividend Yield--8.95%9.21%7.72%6.13%5.03%7.28%4.95%5.32%5.92%4.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,381.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)226.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,155.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)276.38172.74103.64
Cash Retained (M)1,155.701,155.701,155.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-276.38-172.74-103.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)879.32982.961,052.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)753.68753.68753.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.171.301.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.171.301.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.471.601.70
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate0.21%1.21%2.21%
Fair Value$23.44$30.80$40.58
Upside / Downside905.94%1,222.03%1,641.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,381.901,398.621,415.541,432.661,449.991,467.531,511.56
Payout Ratio16.37%31.10%45.82%60.55%75.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)226.20434.90648.62867.441,091.461,320.781,398.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate0.21%1.21%2.21%
Year 1 PV (M)404.39408.43412.46
Year 2 PV (M)560.81572.06583.42
Year 3 PV (M)697.40718.49740.00
Year 4 PV (M)815.96849.02883.08
Year 5 PV (M)918.13964.871,013.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,920.8629,342.0730,820.57
Equity Value (M)31,317.5732,854.9434,453.02
Shares Outstanding (M)753.68753.68753.68
Fair Value$41.55$43.59$45.71
Upside / Downside1,683.40%1,770.94%1,861.95%

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