Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Galva Technologies Tbk (GLVA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Technology DistributorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$232.90 - $337.71$283.77
Multi-Stage$405.73 - $444.81$424.89
Blended Fair Value$354.33
Current Price$334.00
Upside6.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-0.14%0.00%19.2016.008.006.000.0019.330.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--20.00%100.00%33.33%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.04%4.35%1.00%2.24%0.00%9.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)47,838.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)28,800.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)19,038.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9,567.605,979.753,587.85
Cash Retained (M)19,038.0019,038.0019,038.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-9,567.60-5,979.75-3,587.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,470.4013,058.2515,450.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,500.001,500.001,500.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.318.7110.30
LTM Dividend per Share19.2019.2019.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.318.7110.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend25.5127.9129.50
WACC / Discount Rate8.74%8.74%8.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$232.90$283.77$337.71
Upside / Downside-30.27%-15.04%1.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)47,838.0047,359.6246,886.0246,417.1645,952.9945,493.4646,858.27
Payout Ratio60.20%66.16%72.12%78.08%84.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)28,800.0031,334.3333,815.1036,243.1138,619.1940,944.1243,343.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.74%8.74%8.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)28,525.9528,817.0329,108.12
Year 2 PV (M)28,025.2928,600.1529,180.85
Year 3 PV (M)27,345.4328,191.1029,054.03
Year 4 PV (M)26,526.6327,626.0328,759.26
Year 5 PV (M)25,602.9626,936.1628,324.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)472,562.41497,169.83522,791.84
Equity Value (M)608,588.67637,340.32667,218.44
Shares Outstanding (M)1,500.001,500.001,500.00
Fair Value$405.73$424.89$444.81
Upside / Downside21.47%27.21%33.18%

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