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Definitive Analysis

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Globe Life Inc. 4.25% Junior Su (GL-PD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$150.43 - $241.45$191.58
Multi-Stage$156.55 - $171.42$163.85
Blended Fair Value$177.71
Current Price$142.97
Upside24.30%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.88%2.78%1.021.010.960.960.940.890.860.820.800.80
YoY Growth--1.63%4.43%0.63%2.37%5.40%3.87%3.76%2.84%0.05%2.91%
Dividend Yield--0.78%0.88%0.88%0.95%0.97%1.23%1.02%0.98%1.04%1.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,150.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)84.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,065.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)230.07143.7986.28
Cash Retained (M)1,065.761,065.761,065.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-230.07-143.79-86.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)835.69921.97979.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)83.5183.5183.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share10.0111.0411.73
LTM Dividend per Share1.011.011.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share10.0111.0411.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend11.0212.0512.74
WACC / Discount Rate10.32%10.32%10.32%
Growth Rate2.79%3.79%4.79%
Fair Value$150.43$191.58$241.45
Upside / Downside5.22%34.00%68.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,150.351,193.901,239.101,286.021,334.701,385.241,426.79
Payout Ratio7.35%23.88%40.41%56.94%73.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)84.59285.13500.75732.27980.621,246.711,319.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.32%10.32%10.32%
Growth Rate2.79%3.79%4.79%
Year 1 PV (M)255.98258.47260.96
Year 2 PV (M)403.58411.47419.44
Year 3 PV (M)529.84545.46561.38
Year 4 PV (M)636.98662.14688.03
Year 5 PV (M)727.03763.09800.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,520.3111,042.1211,584.44
Equity Value (M)13,073.7313,682.7514,314.81
Shares Outstanding (M)83.5183.5183.51
Fair Value$156.55$163.85$171.42
Upside / Downside9.50%14.60%19.90%

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