Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT. Gajah Tunggal Tbk (GJTL.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,678.50 - $8,891.06$6,378.08
Multi-Stage$7,132.96 - $7,839.63$7,479.53
Blended Fair Value$6,928.80
Current Price$1,115.00
Upside521.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%17.43%49.810.000.009.960.000.000.004.980.009.96
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%-0.22%
Dividend Yield--4.72%0.00%0.00%1.59%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.61%0.00%1.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,060,274.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)173,577.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)886,697.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)212,054.80132,534.2579,520.55
Cash Retained (M)886,697.00886,697.00886,697.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-212,054.80-132,534.25-79,520.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)674,642.20754,162.75807,176.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,484.413,484.413,484.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share193.62216.44231.65
LTM Dividend per Share49.8249.8249.82
(+) Excess Retained per Share193.62216.44231.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend243.43266.25281.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate1.27%2.27%3.27%
Fair Value$4,678.50$6,378.08$8,891.06
Upside / Downside319.60%472.02%697.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,060,274.001,084,325.461,108,922.501,134,077.511,159,803.131,186,112.331,221,695.70
Payout Ratio16.37%31.10%45.82%60.55%75.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)173,577.00337,190.14508,136.83686,665.59873,032.431,067,501.091,130,068.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate1.27%2.27%3.27%
Year 1 PV (M)313,403.82316,498.60319,593.38
Year 2 PV (M)438,974.71447,687.04456,484.98
Year 3 PV (M)551,357.79567,853.16584,674.30
Year 4 PV (M)651,550.40677,669.69704,566.53
Year 5 PV (M)740,483.48777,773.13816,550.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,158,379.6323,274,242.7724,434,614.44
Equity Value (M)24,854,149.8226,061,724.4027,316,483.79
Shares Outstanding (M)3,484.413,484.413,484.41
Fair Value$7,132.96$7,479.53$7,839.63
Upside / Downside539.73%570.81%603.11%

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