Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Guess', Inc. (GES)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.22 - $16.42$13.73
Multi-Stage$15.49 - $16.91$16.19
Blended Fair Value$14.96
Current Price$16.98
Upside-11.90%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.79%-1.80%1.151.130.930.660.280.761.321.371.371.38
YoY Growth--2.26%21.16%41.03%136.28%-63.09%-42.75%-3.24%-0.58%-0.46%-0.19%
Dividend Yield--10.15%4.22%4.94%2.94%1.03%9.33%6.48%5.87%12.32%7.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)80.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)49.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)30.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.0710.056.03
Cash Retained (M)30.9330.9330.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.07-10.05-6.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.8520.8824.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)55.6655.6655.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.380.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.890.890.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.380.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.151.261.34
WACC / Discount Rate10.47%10.47%10.47%
Growth Rate0.17%1.17%2.17%
Fair Value$11.22$13.73$16.42
Upside / Downside-33.90%-19.14%-3.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)80.3681.3082.2483.2084.1785.1587.71
Payout Ratio61.52%67.21%72.91%78.61%84.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)49.4454.6459.9765.4070.9676.6481.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.47%10.47%10.47%
Growth Rate0.17%1.17%2.17%
Year 1 PV (M)48.9749.4649.95
Year 2 PV (M)48.1749.1350.11
Year 3 PV (M)47.0948.5149.96
Year 4 PV (M)45.7947.6449.55
Year 5 PV (M)44.3246.5848.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)627.81659.78693.04
Equity Value (M)862.14901.11941.54
Shares Outstanding (M)55.6655.6655.66
Fair Value$15.49$16.19$16.91
Upside / Downside-8.79%-4.66%-0.39%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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