Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Greene County Bancorp, Inc. (GCBC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$63.38 - $308.22$112.66
Multi-Stage$37.86 - $41.42$39.61
Blended Fair Value$76.13
Current Price$22.60
Upside236.88%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS14.86%9.55%0.260.190.130.150.140.130.120.090.110.11
YoY Growth--38.12%47.88%-16.82%8.40%8.58%9.87%33.49%-20.52%3.56%3.11%
Dividend Yield--1.16%0.62%0.54%0.54%0.79%1.21%0.87%0.55%0.75%1.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)33.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)29.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.754.222.53
Cash Retained (M)29.2729.2729.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.75-4.22-2.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.5225.0526.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)17.0317.0317.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.321.471.57
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.321.471.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.591.731.83
WACC / Discount Rate8.14%8.14%8.14%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$63.38$112.66$308.22
Upside / Downside180.43%398.49%1,263.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)33.7535.9438.2840.7643.4146.2447.62
Payout Ratio13.26%28.61%43.96%59.30%74.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.4810.2816.8324.1832.4141.6144.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.14%8.14%8.14%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)9.429.519.60
Year 2 PV (M)14.1214.3914.66
Year 3 PV (M)18.5819.1219.66
Year 4 PV (M)22.8223.7024.60
Year 5 PV (M)26.8428.1429.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)552.89579.60607.32
Equity Value (M)644.68674.45705.33
Shares Outstanding (M)17.0317.0317.03
Fair Value$37.86$39.61$41.42
Upside / Downside67.53%75.27%83.29%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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