Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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GATX Corporation (GATX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Rental & Leasing ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$114.62 - $199.32$150.89
Multi-Stage$139.34 - $152.69$145.89
Blended Fair Value$148.39
Current Price$174.80
Upside-15.11%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.12%3.18%2.362.252.132.071.981.931.931.901.881.90
YoY Growth--5.21%5.22%3.10%4.65%2.45%0.00%1.61%1.19%-1.17%10.00%
Dividend Yield--1.52%1.71%1.94%1.68%2.13%3.09%2.50%2.77%3.08%4.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)312.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)88.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)224.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)62.5639.1023.46
Cash Retained (M)224.10224.10224.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-62.56-39.10-23.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)161.54185.00200.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)35.9035.9035.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.505.155.59
LTM Dividend per Share2.472.472.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.505.155.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.977.628.06
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate2.12%3.12%4.12%
Fair Value$114.62$150.89$199.32
Upside / Downside-34.43%-13.68%14.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)312.80322.56332.62343.00353.70364.73375.67
Payout Ratio28.36%40.69%53.01%65.34%77.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)88.70131.23176.34224.12274.72328.26347.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate2.12%3.12%4.12%
Year 1 PV (M)119.97121.14122.32
Year 2 PV (M)147.36150.26153.19
Year 3 PV (M)171.22176.30181.48
Year 4 PV (M)191.85199.48207.33
Year 5 PV (M)209.56220.03230.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,162.344,370.174,586.22
Equity Value (M)5,002.315,237.385,481.44
Shares Outstanding (M)35.9035.9035.90
Fair Value$139.34$145.89$152.69
Upside / Downside-20.29%-16.54%-12.65%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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