Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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First Merchants Corporation (FRME)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$108.73 - $355.67$176.53
Multi-Stage$71.40 - $78.00$74.64
Blended Fair Value$125.58
Current Price$37.70
Upside233.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.74%22.54%1.411.381.261.060.980.890.720.550.380.27
YoY Growth--1.95%10.05%18.81%8.29%10.27%23.08%30.92%43.31%41.84%46.38%
Dividend Yield--3.48%4.05%3.81%2.54%2.10%3.34%1.91%1.32%0.97%1.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)233.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)82.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)150.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)46.6629.1617.50
Cash Retained (M)150.72150.72150.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-46.66-29.16-17.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)104.06121.56133.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)57.9357.9357.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.802.102.30
LTM Dividend per Share1.431.431.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.802.102.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.223.523.73
WACC / Discount Rate8.63%8.63%8.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$108.73$176.53$355.67
Upside / Downside188.42%368.24%843.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)233.29248.45264.60281.80300.11319.62329.21
Payout Ratio35.39%46.32%57.24%68.16%79.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)82.57115.07151.45192.07237.33287.66304.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.63%8.63%8.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)104.94105.93106.93
Year 2 PV (M)125.95128.35130.77
Year 3 PV (M)145.67149.85154.11
Year 4 PV (M)164.14170.46176.95
Year 5 PV (M)181.44190.20199.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,414.033,578.933,750.14
Equity Value (M)4,136.174,323.724,518.20
Shares Outstanding (M)57.9357.9357.93
Fair Value$71.40$74.64$78.00
Upside / Downside89.40%97.98%106.89%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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