Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.57 - $17.42$15.01
Multi-Stage$16.70 - $18.33$17.50
Blended Fair Value$16.25
Current Price$99.11
Upside-83.60%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.010.090.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-94.12%4,150.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.28%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)194.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)180.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)38.9624.3514.61
Cash Retained (M)180.30180.30180.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-38.96-24.35-14.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)141.34155.95165.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)90.1390.1390.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.571.731.84
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.571.731.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.731.892.00
WACC / Discount Rate11.48%11.48%11.48%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$12.57$15.01$17.42
Upside / Downside-87.31%-84.86%-82.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)194.80192.85190.92189.01187.12185.25190.81
Payout Ratio7.44%23.95%40.47%56.98%73.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14.5046.2077.26107.70137.52166.73176.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.48%11.48%11.48%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)41.0241.4441.86
Year 2 PV (M)60.9262.1763.43
Year 3 PV (M)75.4177.7480.12
Year 4 PV (M)85.5189.0592.70
Year 5 PV (M)92.0696.85101.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,149.811,209.691,272.03
Equity Value (M)1,504.731,576.941,651.99
Shares Outstanding (M)90.1390.1390.13
Fair Value$16.70$17.50$18.33
Upside / Downside-83.15%-82.35%-81.51%

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