Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CopperSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.21 - $44.42$31.73
Multi-Stage$18.25 - $19.88$19.05
Blended Fair Value$25.39
Current Price$39.22
Upside-35.27%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.34%-4.03%0.600.600.600.230.050.200.150.000.000.42
YoY Growth--0.23%-0.35%161.63%353.42%-74.91%33.49%10,800.00%-66.67%-99.01%-53.64%
Dividend Yield--1.58%1.26%1.47%0.46%0.15%2.99%1.15%0.01%0.03%4.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,066.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)865.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,201.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)413.20258.25154.95
Cash Retained (M)1,201.001,201.001,201.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-413.20-258.25-154.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)787.80942.751,046.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,444.001,444.001,444.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.550.650.72
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.550.650.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.141.251.32
WACC / Discount Rate10.70%10.70%10.70%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.21$31.73$44.42
Upside / Downside-40.82%-19.11%13.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,066.002,200.292,343.312,495.622,657.842,830.602,915.52
Payout Ratio41.87%51.49%61.12%70.75%80.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)865.001,133.031,432.251,765.592,136.202,547.542,696.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.70%10.70%10.70%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,013.881,023.491,033.10
Year 2 PV (M)1,146.861,168.711,190.76
Year 3 PV (M)1,265.101,301.421,338.42
Year 4 PV (M)1,369.701,422.371,476.55
Year 5 PV (M)1,461.661,532.261,605.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,088.7121,059.0022,066.43
Equity Value (M)26,345.9227,507.2628,710.83
Shares Outstanding (M)1,444.001,444.001,444.00
Fair Value$18.25$19.05$19.88
Upside / Downside-53.48%-51.43%-49.30%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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