Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,815.60 - $9,380.86$5,696.10
Multi-Stage$2,616.05 - $2,860.71$2,736.15
Blended Fair Value$4,216.13
Current Price$1,789.16
Upside135.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS54.18%29.91%11.798.736.203.132.241.351.251.081.081.34
YoY Growth--35.04%40.96%97.62%40.00%65.41%8.09%16.42%0.00%-20.00%56.07%
Dividend Yield--0.64%0.54%0.64%0.47%0.27%0.41%0.30%0.26%0.32%0.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,326.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)163.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,163.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)465.20290.75174.45
Cash Retained (M)2,163.002,163.002,163.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-465.20-290.75-174.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,697.801,872.251,988.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13.4013.4013.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share126.73139.75148.43
LTM Dividend per Share12.1712.1712.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share126.73139.75148.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend138.89151.91160.59
WACC / Discount Rate9.34%9.34%9.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3,815.60$5,696.10$9,380.86
Upside / Downside113.26%218.37%424.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,326.002,477.192,638.212,809.692,992.323,186.823,282.43
Payout Ratio7.01%23.61%40.20%56.80%73.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)163.00584.771,060.681,595.992,196.412,868.143,036.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.34%9.34%9.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)529.79534.82539.84
Year 2 PV (M)870.62887.21903.95
Year 3 PV (M)1,186.861,220.931,255.64
Year 4 PV (M)1,479.801,536.711,595.24
Year 5 PV (M)1,750.701,835.261,923.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)29,230.5330,642.3832,108.26
Equity Value (M)35,048.3136,657.3038,325.99
Shares Outstanding (M)13.4013.4013.40
Fair Value$2,616.05$2,736.15$2,860.71
Upside / Downside46.22%52.93%59.89%

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