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Definitive Analysis

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First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (FCF)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.08 - $110.98$57.61
Multi-Stage$25.15 - $27.47$26.29
Blended Fair Value$41.95
Current Price$17.05
Upside146.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.95%7.23%0.510.490.430.420.420.380.340.300.240.24
YoY Growth--3.52%13.99%2.22%1.46%9.11%13.04%14.21%22.51%-0.73%-4.15%
Dividend Yield--3.28%3.61%3.48%2.79%2.90%4.18%2.62%2.09%1.82%2.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)143.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)54.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)88.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28.6617.9110.75
Cash Retained (M)88.5688.5688.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-28.66-17.91-10.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)59.9070.6577.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)103.13103.13103.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.580.690.75
LTM Dividend per Share0.530.530.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.580.690.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.111.221.29
WACC / Discount Rate8.47%8.47%8.47%
Growth Rate5.23%6.23%7.23%
Fair Value$36.08$57.61$110.98
Upside / Downside111.61%237.88%550.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)143.28152.20161.68171.75182.45193.82199.63
Payout Ratio38.19%48.55%58.91%69.28%79.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)54.7273.9095.25118.98145.30174.43184.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.47%8.47%8.47%
Growth Rate5.23%6.23%7.23%
Year 1 PV (M)67.4868.1368.77
Year 2 PV (M)79.4480.9682.49
Year 3 PV (M)90.6293.2395.89
Year 4 PV (M)101.06104.96108.97
Year 5 PV (M)110.80116.16121.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,143.912,247.732,355.54
Equity Value (M)2,593.312,711.162,833.38
Shares Outstanding (M)103.13103.13103.13
Fair Value$25.15$26.29$27.47
Upside / Downside47.49%54.19%61.14%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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