Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$93.37 - $174.73$126.53
Multi-Stage$99.14 - $108.57$103.77
Blended Fair Value$115.15
Current Price$122.59
Upside-6.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.66%5.06%1.481.461.551.421.271.231.131.091.050.98
YoY Growth--1.02%-5.51%9.21%11.91%2.57%8.74%4.22%3.70%6.97%8.86%
Dividend Yield--1.23%1.23%1.40%1.37%1.18%1.85%1.46%1.72%1.86%2.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)845.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)205.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)639.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)169.10105.6963.41
Cash Retained (M)639.92639.92639.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-169.10-105.69-63.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)470.81534.23576.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)138.19138.19138.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.413.874.17
LTM Dividend per Share1.491.491.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.413.874.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.895.355.66
WACC / Discount Rate8.46%8.46%8.46%
Growth Rate3.06%4.06%5.06%
Fair Value$93.37$126.53$174.73
Upside / Downside-23.84%3.21%42.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)845.50879.79915.47952.59991.221,031.421,062.36
Payout Ratio24.32%37.45%50.59%63.73%76.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)205.59329.50463.13607.05761.89928.28982.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.46%8.46%8.46%
Growth Rate3.06%4.06%5.06%
Year 1 PV (M)300.89303.81306.73
Year 2 PV (M)386.18393.71401.32
Year 3 PV (M)462.23475.82489.67
Year 4 PV (M)529.75550.61572.08
Year 5 PV (M)589.39618.54648.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,431.5011,997.0012,584.66
Equity Value (M)13,699.9414,339.4915,003.30
Shares Outstanding (M)138.19138.19138.19
Fair Value$99.14$103.77$108.57
Upside / Downside-19.13%-15.35%-11.44%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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