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Definitive Analysis

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Esquire Financial Holdings, Inc. (ESQ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$204.17 - $1,136.51$390.91
Multi-Stage$115.71 - $126.63$121.07
Blended Fair Value$255.99
Current Price$102.06
Upside150.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.560.430.250.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--30.30%73.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.75%0.91%0.64%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)49.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)43.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.826.143.68
Cash Retained (M)43.5643.5643.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.82-6.14-3.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)33.7437.4239.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8.598.598.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.934.364.64
LTM Dividend per Share0.650.650.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.934.364.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.575.005.29
WACC / Discount Rate7.86%7.86%7.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$204.17$390.91$1,136.51
Upside / Downside100.05%283.02%1,013.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)49.1152.3055.7059.3263.1767.2869.30
Payout Ratio11.29%27.03%42.77%58.52%74.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.5414.1423.8234.7146.9160.5564.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.86%7.86%7.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)12.9813.1113.23
Year 2 PV (M)20.0920.4820.86
Year 3 PV (M)26.8927.6628.45
Year 4 PV (M)33.3734.6635.98
Year 5 PV (M)39.5641.4743.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)861.38902.99946.18
Equity Value (M)994.291,040.361,088.16
Shares Outstanding (M)8.598.598.59
Fair Value$115.71$121.07$126.63
Upside / Downside13.37%18.63%24.08%

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