Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Erajaya Swasembada Tbk (ERAA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,380.87 - $3,272.84$2,036.81
Multi-Stage$984.32 - $1,074.78$1,028.73
Blended Fair Value$1,532.77
Current Price$432.00
Upside254.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.96%177.18%17.0019.0022.9613.900.0010.116.983.673.673.67
YoY Growth---10.53%-17.23%65.15%0.00%-100.00%44.74%90.00%0.00%0.00%578,566.58%
Dividend Yield--4.21%4.30%4.41%2.40%0.00%5.40%1.91%1.45%3.04%2.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,026,957.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)299,886.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)727,070.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)205,391.41128,369.6377,021.78
Cash Retained (M)727,070.83727,070.83727,070.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-205,391.41-128,369.63-77,021.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)521,679.42598,701.20650,049.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15,783.4915,783.4915,783.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share33.0537.9341.19
LTM Dividend per Share19.0019.0019.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share33.0537.9341.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend52.0556.9360.19
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,380.87$2,036.81$3,272.84
Upside / Downside219.65%371.48%657.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,026,957.041,093,709.251,164,800.351,240,512.371,321,145.671,407,020.141,449,230.75
Payout Ratio29.20%41.36%53.52%65.68%77.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)299,886.21452,370.72623,411.19814,775.651,028,383.591,266,318.131,340,538.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)409,331.37413,211.29417,091.21
Year 2 PV (M)510,429.41520,151.66529,965.62
Year 3 PV (M)603,642.34620,970.74638,627.63
Year 4 PV (M)689,409.61715,922.36743,192.56
Year 5 PV (M)768,149.18805,251.07843,772.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,555,037.4713,161,450.4713,791,072.33
Equity Value (M)15,535,999.3816,236,957.5916,963,722.29
Shares Outstanding (M)15,783.4915,783.4915,783.49
Fair Value$984.32$1,028.73$1,074.78
Upside / Downside127.85%138.13%148.79%

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