Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Equity Bancshares, Inc. (EQBK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.00 - $123.05$51.46
Multi-Stage$19.25 - $21.01$20.12
Blended Fair Value$35.79
Current Price$40.70
Upside-12.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.450.370.310.060.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--19.32%18.87%384.25%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.13%1.11%1.29%0.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)17.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.532.201.32
Cash Retained (M)7.367.367.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.53-2.20-1.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.845.166.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)17.6817.6817.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.290.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.580.580.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.290.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.800.870.92
WACC / Discount Rate8.31%8.31%8.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$30.00$51.46$123.05
Upside / Downside-26.30%26.44%202.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)17.6318.7719.9921.2922.6824.1524.88
Payout Ratio58.24%64.59%70.94%77.29%83.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.2712.1314.1816.4618.9721.7423.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.31%8.31%8.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)11.0911.2011.30
Year 2 PV (M)11.8712.0912.32
Year 3 PV (M)12.5912.9613.32
Year 4 PV (M)13.2813.7914.31
Year 5 PV (M)13.9114.5915.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)277.61291.01304.94
Equity Value (M)340.35355.63371.48
Shares Outstanding (M)17.6817.6817.68
Fair Value$19.25$20.12$21.01
Upside / Downside-52.69%-50.57%-48.37%

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