Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Embelton Limited (EMB.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.80 - $9.74$8.24
Multi-Stage$17.67 - $19.47$18.55
Blended Fair Value$13.40
Current Price$8.33
Upside60.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-2.64%1.06%0.350.350.300.350.400.400.500.470.460.36
YoY Growth---0.03%16.67%-14.29%-12.50%0.00%-20.00%6.38%2.17%29.58%12.70%
Dividend Yield--4.21%3.70%2.86%3.51%3.31%4.01%4.77%3.37%3.84%4.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.440.270.16
Cash Retained (M)0.680.680.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.44-0.27-0.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.240.400.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.152.152.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.190.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.700.700.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.190.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.810.890.94
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-4.64%-3.64%-2.64%
Fair Value$6.80$8.24$9.74
Upside / Downside-18.35%-1.06%16.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2.192.112.031.961.881.821.87
Payout Ratio69.10%73.28%77.46%81.64%85.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.511.541.571.601.621.631.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-4.64%-3.64%-2.64%
Year 1 PV (M)1.431.451.46
Year 2 PV (M)1.351.381.41
Year 3 PV (M)1.271.311.35
Year 4 PV (M)1.191.251.30
Year 5 PV (M)1.121.181.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)31.7033.4035.17
Equity Value (M)38.0739.9641.93
Shares Outstanding (M)2.152.152.15
Fair Value$17.67$18.55$19.47
Upside / Downside112.18%122.72%133.70%

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