Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Emaar Development PJSC (EMAARDEV.AE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$305.82 - $500.87$469.39
Multi-Stage$80.66 - $88.34$84.43
Blended Fair Value$276.91
Current Price$13.45
Upside1,958.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.89%0.00%0.520.520.150.330.230.260.291.030.030.00
YoY Growth--0.05%243.97%-53.92%45.08%-12.98%-10.92%-71.73%3,203.74%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.25%6.10%2.75%7.38%8.98%11.99%7.49%19.13%0.54%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,068.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,720.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,348.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,013.771,258.61755.16
Cash Retained (M)7,348.857,348.857,348.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,013.77-1,258.61-755.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,335.086,090.246,593.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,997.893,997.893,997.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.331.521.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.680.680.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.331.521.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.012.202.33
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$305.82$469.39$500.87
Upside / Downside2,173.73%3,389.91%3,623.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,068.8510,723.3211,420.3412,162.6612,953.2313,795.1914,209.05
Payout Ratio27.01%39.61%52.21%64.81%77.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,720.004,247.645,962.387,882.0810,026.1612,415.6713,143.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,962.293,999.844,037.40
Year 2 PV (M)5,188.205,287.025,386.77
Year 3 PV (M)6,397.896,581.556,768.69
Year 4 PV (M)7,591.527,883.478,183.76
Year 5 PV (M)8,769.259,192.819,632.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)290,548.25304,581.84319,152.53
Equity Value (M)322,457.40337,526.53353,161.73
Shares Outstanding (M)3,997.893,997.893,997.89
Fair Value$80.66$84.43$88.34
Upside / Downside499.68%527.70%556.78%

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