Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Elevance Health Inc. (ELV)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Healthcare PlansSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,155.42 - $4,837.35$2,918.06
Multi-Stage$573.21 - $627.17$599.69
Blended Fair Value$1,758.88
Current Price$323.12
Upside444.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.01%12.11%6.636.135.404.854.193.603.413.103.012.89
YoY Growth--8.10%13.51%11.32%15.72%16.63%5.41%10.09%3.06%4.17%36.59%
Dividend Yield--1.52%1.19%1.18%0.99%1.17%1.58%1.18%1.41%1.82%2.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,533.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,525.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,008.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,106.60691.63414.98
Cash Retained (M)4,008.004,008.004,008.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,106.60-691.63-414.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,901.403,316.383,593.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)227.48227.48227.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share12.7514.5815.80
LTM Dividend per Share6.706.706.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share12.7514.5815.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend19.4621.2822.50
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,155.42$2,918.06$4,837.35
Upside / Downside257.58%803.09%1,397.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,533.005,892.656,275.676,683.597,118.027,580.697,808.11
Payout Ratio27.56%40.05%52.54%65.02%77.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,525.002,359.983,297.064,345.995,517.356,822.627,222.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,179.242,199.892,220.55
Year 2 PV (M)2,811.392,864.942,918.99
Year 3 PV (M)3,422.003,520.233,620.33
Year 4 PV (M)4,011.614,165.894,324.57
Year 5 PV (M)4,580.764,802.015,031.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)113,385.66118,862.23124,548.40
Equity Value (M)130,390.65136,415.18142,664.56
Shares Outstanding (M)227.48227.48227.48
Fair Value$573.21$599.69$627.17
Upside / Downside77.40%85.59%94.10%

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