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Definitive Analysis

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VAALCO Energy, Inc. (EGY)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.18 - $15.67$9.32
Multi-Stage$4.64 - $5.05$4.84
Blended Fair Value$7.08
Current Price$4.02
Upside76.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.250.260.090.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---2.08%186.21%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.71%3.57%1.99%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)28.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.693.562.13
Cash Retained (M)2.082.082.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.69-3.56-2.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)-3.61-1.47-0.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)103.96103.96103.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.25
WACC / Discount Rate9.24%9.24%9.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6.18$9.32$15.67
Upside / Downside53.78%131.80%289.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)28.4630.3132.2834.3836.6138.9940.16
Payout Ratio92.67%92.14%91.60%91.07%90.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.3827.9329.5731.3133.1535.0937.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.24%9.24%9.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)25.3325.5725.81
Year 2 PV (M)24.3224.7825.25
Year 3 PV (M)23.3524.0224.70
Year 4 PV (M)22.4223.2824.17
Year 5 PV (M)21.5222.5623.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)365.26382.90401.22
Equity Value (M)482.19503.11524.78
Shares Outstanding (M)103.96103.96103.96
Fair Value$4.64$4.84$5.05
Upside / Downside15.38%20.38%25.57%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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