Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

ECSC Group plc (ECSC.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$58.90 - $99.26$76.56
Multi-Stage$218.37 - $241.12$229.52
Blended Fair Value$153.04
Current Price$0.53
Upside29,050.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20212020201920182017201520142013
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-9.23%27.78%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.06%0.06%0.05%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)996.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)220.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)776.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)199.34124.5874.75
Cash Retained (M)776.37776.37776.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-199.34-124.58-74.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)577.03651.78701.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)198.92198.92198.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.903.283.53
LTM Dividend per Share1.111.111.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.903.283.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.014.384.63
WACC / Discount Rate4.67%4.67%4.67%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$58.90$76.56$99.26
Upside / Downside11,118.91%14,482.41%18,806.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)996.68986.71976.84967.08957.40947.83976.27
Payout Ratio22.10%35.68%49.26%62.84%76.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)220.31352.09481.22607.73731.66853.05903.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.67%4.67%4.67%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)332.99336.39339.78
Year 2 PV (M)430.41439.24448.16
Year 3 PV (M)514.07529.97546.19
Year 4 PV (M)585.32609.58634.59
Year 5 PV (M)645.41679.01714.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,931.0243,062.3945,281.64
Equity Value (M)43,439.2245,656.5847,964.37
Shares Outstanding (M)198.92198.92198.92
Fair Value$218.37$229.52$241.12
Upside / Downside41,494.64%43,617.85%45,827.64%

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