Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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ECP Emerging Growth Limited (ECP.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.69 - $4.07$3.34
Multi-Stage$5.38 - $5.92$5.64
Blended Fair Value$4.49
Current Price$1.22
Upside268.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS5.12%29.24%0.040.040.040.040.040.030.030.020.020.01
YoY Growth---1.38%5.05%5.45%10.58%6.25%14.29%27.25%19.20%102.63%188.26%
Dividend Yield--3.48%3.37%4.10%3.54%2.33%3.01%3.00%2.31%2.16%1.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)5.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.390.870.52
Cash Retained (M)5.255.255.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.39-0.87-0.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.864.384.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22.1422.1422.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.69$3.34$4.07
Upside / Downside120.66%173.81%233.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6.946.876.806.736.666.606.80
Payout Ratio24.35%37.48%50.61%63.74%76.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.692.573.444.295.125.946.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2.382.402.43
Year 2 PV (M)2.943.003.06
Year 3 PV (M)3.393.493.60
Year 4 PV (M)3.743.894.05
Year 5 PV (M)4.004.214.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)102.62107.96113.53
Equity Value (M)119.06124.95131.08
Shares Outstanding (M)22.1422.1422.14
Fair Value$5.38$5.64$5.92
Upside / Downside340.81%362.64%385.35%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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