Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Darya-Varia Laboratoria Tbk (DVLA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,198.42 - $4,004.19$2,948.11
Multi-Stage$3,710.03 - $4,069.84$3,886.51
Blended Fair Value$3,417.31
Current Price$1,625.00
Upside110.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.22%17.25%108.00121.00116.00112.00107.00106.80106.6199.6434.8769.75
YoY Growth---10.74%4.31%3.57%4.67%0.19%0.18%7.00%185.71%-50.00%217.02%
Dividend Yield--7.61%8.18%5.89%4.07%4.51%5.09%5.05%4.99%2.05%5.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)173,089.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)123,200.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)49,889.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34,617.9221,636.2012,981.72
Cash Retained (M)49,889.6149,889.6149,889.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-34,617.92-21,636.20-12,981.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)15,271.6928,253.4136,907.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,120.001,120.001,120.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share13.6425.2332.95
LTM Dividend per Share110.00110.00110.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share13.6425.2332.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend123.64135.23142.95
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate0.86%1.86%2.86%
Fair Value$2,198.42$2,948.11$4,004.19
Upside / Downside35.29%81.42%146.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)173,089.61176,310.08179,590.48182,931.91186,335.51189,802.44195,496.51
Payout Ratio71.18%74.94%78.71%82.47%86.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)123,200.00132,129.61141,348.85150,865.42160,687.18170,822.20180,834.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate0.86%1.86%2.86%
Year 1 PV (M)122,809.54124,027.15125,244.77
Year 2 PV (M)122,111.39124,544.78127,002.18
Year 3 PV (M)121,139.43124,778.45128,489.62
Year 4 PV (M)119,924.80124,752.06129,723.61
Year 5 PV (M)118,496.09124,487.99130,719.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,550,753.803,730,301.873,917,040.82
Equity Value (M)4,155,235.054,352,892.304,558,220.86
Shares Outstanding (M)1,120.001,120.001,120.00
Fair Value$3,710.03$3,886.51$4,069.84
Upside / Downside128.31%139.17%150.45%

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