Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Deutsche Telekom AG (DTEL.BR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$164.67 - $450.75$422.42
Multi-Stage$63.92 - $69.92$66.87
Blended Fair Value$244.64
Current Price$20.00
Upside1,123.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.45%15.80%1.130.810.680.640.620.720.660.320.320.25
YoY Growth--38.86%18.97%7.63%2.54%-13.87%9.43%108.72%-2.32%27.07%-2.64%
Dividend Yield--5.65%4.07%3.05%3.75%3.61%6.15%4.45%2.38%2.15%1.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11,209.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,592.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,617.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,241.801,401.13840.68
Cash Retained (M)5,617.005,617.005,617.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,241.80-1,401.13-840.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,375.204,215.884,776.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,945.504,945.504,945.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.680.850.97
LTM Dividend per Share1.131.131.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.680.850.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.811.982.10
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$164.67$422.42$450.75
Upside / Downside723.37%2,012.10%2,153.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11,209.0011,937.5912,713.5313,539.9114,420.0015,357.3015,818.02
Payout Ratio49.89%57.91%65.93%73.96%81.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,592.006,913.158,382.4210,013.4911,821.1813,821.5714,631.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)6,420.526,481.386,542.24
Year 2 PV (M)7,230.347,368.067,507.07
Year 3 PV (M)8,021.758,252.038,486.67
Year 4 PV (M)8,795.079,133.309,481.20
Year 5 PV (M)9,550.5910,011.8910,490.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)276,114.74289,451.18303,298.05
Equity Value (M)316,133.01330,697.84345,806.06
Shares Outstanding (M)4,945.504,945.504,945.50
Fair Value$63.92$66.87$69.92
Upside / Downside219.62%234.34%249.62%

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