Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Dover Corporation (DOV)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$126.24 - $185.24$154.63
Multi-Stage$189.52 - $208.25$198.71
Blended Fair Value$176.67
Current Price$166.83
Upside5.90%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.07%0.91%2.052.062.082.082.062.042.052.061.941.87
YoY Growth---0.42%-1.13%0.23%0.91%0.75%-0.48%-0.14%5.82%4.02%-0.20%
Dividend Yield--1.17%1.17%1.37%1.32%1.50%2.43%2.14%2.59%3.00%3.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,247.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)283.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,963.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)449.57280.98168.59
Cash Retained (M)1,963.931,963.931,963.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-449.57-280.98-168.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,514.361,682.951,795.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)138.14138.14138.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share10.9612.1813.00
LTM Dividend per Share2.062.062.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share10.9612.1813.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend13.0214.2415.05
WACC / Discount Rate9.11%9.11%9.11%
Growth Rate-1.09%-0.09%0.91%
Fair Value$126.24$154.63$185.24
Upside / Downside-24.33%-7.31%11.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,247.862,245.942,244.012,242.092,240.172,238.252,305.40
Payout Ratio12.63%28.10%43.58%59.05%74.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)283.93631.22977.911,324.011,669.512,014.422,132.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.11%9.11%9.11%
Growth Rate-1.09%-0.09%0.91%
Year 1 PV (M)572.70578.49584.28
Year 2 PV (M)805.01821.37837.89
Year 3 PV (M)988.881,019.171,050.08
Year 4 PV (M)1,131.341,177.791,225.65
Year 5 PV (M)1,238.521,302.411,368.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,444.0422,550.1523,701.44
Equity Value (M)26,180.4927,449.3828,768.25
Shares Outstanding (M)138.14138.14138.14
Fair Value$189.52$198.71$208.25
Upside / Downside13.60%19.11%24.83%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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