Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$229.93 - $486.81$326.21
Multi-Stage$172.67 - $188.34$180.36
Blended Fair Value$253.29
Current Price$221.45
Upside14.38%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS29.76%19.43%4.354.231.961.641.291.181.070.880.820.78
YoY Growth--3.00%115.35%20.02%26.51%9.25%10.13%22.13%7.54%5.03%5.64%
Dividend Yield--2.25%2.08%1.35%1.70%1.57%4.35%2.95%2.78%1.62%1.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,020.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)394.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)626.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)204.17127.6176.57
Cash Retained (M)626.71626.71626.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-204.17-127.61-76.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)422.53499.10550.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)83.1083.1083.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.086.016.62
LTM Dividend per Share4.744.744.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.086.016.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.8310.7511.36
WACC / Discount Rate10.01%10.01%10.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$229.93$326.21$486.81
Upside / Downside3.83%47.31%119.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,020.871,087.231,157.901,233.161,313.321,398.681,440.64
Payout Ratio38.61%48.89%59.17%69.44%79.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)394.16531.53685.08856.361,047.001,258.811,332.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.01%10.01%10.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)478.63483.17487.70
Year 2 PV (M)555.51566.09576.77
Year 3 PV (M)625.28643.23661.52
Year 4 PV (M)688.40714.88742.11
Year 5 PV (M)745.30781.30818.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,256.3211,800.0012,364.49
Equity Value (M)14,349.4414,988.6615,651.27
Shares Outstanding (M)83.1083.1083.10
Fair Value$172.67$180.36$188.34
Upside / Downside-22.03%-18.55%-14.95%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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