Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.47 - $42.92$33.10
Multi-Stage$34.71 - $37.90$36.28
Blended Fair Value$34.69
Current Price$52.34
Upside-33.72%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.38%-5.04%2.041.801.360.311.221.191.241.251.241.31
YoY Growth--13.28%33.14%343.83%-74.87%1.92%-3.59%-0.83%0.64%-5.23%-61.85%
Dividend Yield--6.22%2.98%2.80%0.77%3.40%4.86%2.52%2.58%4.37%3.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)393.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)379.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)14.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)78.7049.1929.51
Cash Retained (M)14.0314.0314.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-78.70-49.19-29.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)-64.67-35.16-15.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)188.84188.84188.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.34-0.19-0.08
LTM Dividend per Share2.012.012.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.34-0.19-0.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.671.821.93
WACC / Discount Rate8.42%8.42%8.42%
Growth Rate1.76%2.76%3.76%
Fair Value$25.47$33.10$42.92
Upside / Downside-51.34%-36.75%-18.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)393.49404.34415.49426.95438.72450.81464.34
Payout Ratio96.43%95.15%93.86%92.57%91.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)379.46384.72389.98395.24400.49405.73429.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.42%8.42%8.42%
Growth Rate1.76%2.76%3.76%
Year 1 PV (M)351.40354.85358.31
Year 2 PV (M)325.35331.78338.27
Year 3 PV (M)301.18310.15319.29
Year 4 PV (M)278.75289.87301.32
Year 5 PV (M)257.94270.87284.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,040.815,293.415,556.04
Equity Value (M)6,555.436,850.937,157.53
Shares Outstanding (M)188.84188.84188.84
Fair Value$34.71$36.28$37.90
Upside / Downside-33.68%-30.69%-27.58%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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