Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $3.60 - $5.45 | $4.47 |
| Multi-Stage | $7.69 - $8.44 | $8.06 |
| Blended Fair Value | $6.27 | |
| Current Price | $2.03 | |
| Upside | 208.64% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -4.10% | -3.66% | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.20 | 0.23 | 0.25 | 0.26 | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -0.39% | 0.00% | -2.02% | -5.22% | -12.30% | -7.32% | -4.58% | -4.91% | -2.04% | 3.06% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 8.61% | 10.27% | 10.45% | 7.59% | 9.67% | 9.02% | 10.48% | 9.09% | 11.13% | 11.55% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 43.20 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 38.30 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 4.89 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 8.64 | 5.40 | 3.24 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 4.89 | 4.89 | 4.89 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -8.64 | -5.40 | -3.24 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -3.75 | -0.51 | 1.65 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 103.55 | 103.55 | 103.55 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.04 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.04 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.33 | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.08% | 7.08% | 7.08% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $3.60 | $4.47 | $5.45 |
| Upside / Downside | 77.40% | 120.26% | 168.41% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 43.20 | 42.76 | 42.34 | 41.91 | 41.49 | 41.08 | 42.31 |
| Payout Ratio | 88.67% | 88.94% | 89.20% | 89.47% | 89.73% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 38.30 | 38.03 | 37.77 | 37.50 | 37.23 | 36.97 | 39.14 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.08% | 7.08% | 7.08% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 35.16 | 35.52 | 35.88 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 32.27 | 32.94 | 33.60 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 29.62 | 30.54 | 31.48 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 27.19 | 28.32 | 29.48 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 24.96 | 26.26 | 27.61 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 647.27 | 680.97 | 716.07 |
| Equity Value (M) | 796.48 | 834.54 | 874.12 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 103.55 | 103.55 | 103.55 |
| Fair Value | $7.69 | $8.06 | $8.44 |
| Upside / Downside | 278.92% | 297.03% | 315.85% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| CBAV3.SA | Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio | 2.84% | $0.20 | 55.55% |
| CWB.TO | Canadian Western Bank | 2.84% | $1.61 | 52.64% |
| GEPA3.SA | Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A. | 2.84% | $0.85 | 18.05% |
| VRANDA.BK | Veranda Resort Public Company Limited | 2.84% | $0.13 | 60.80% |
| 002823.SZ | Shenzhen Kaizhong Precision Technology Co., Ltd. | 2.83% | $0.45 | 63.43% |
| 002831.SZ | ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co., Ltd. | 2.83% | $0.81 | 49.61% |
| 006360.KS | GS Engineering & Construction Corporation | 2.83% | $532.69 | 91.52% |
| AEFES.IS | Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii Anonim Sirketi | 2.83% | $0.45 | 25.40% |
| BTPN.JK | PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk | 2.83% | $60.33 | 24.97% |
| NHY.OL | Norsk Hydro ASA | 2.83% | $2.25 | 46.34% |
| OSP2.DE | USU Software AG | 2.83% | $0.52 | 91.56% |
| 000850.KS | Hwacheon Machine Tool Co. Ltd | 2.82% | $1,050.00 | 33.65% |
| 2205.HK | Kangqiao Service Group Limited | 2.82% | $0.04 | 36.89% |
| 2458.HK | Gala Technology Holding Limited | 2.82% | $0.18 | 14.30% |
| 688526.SS | Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.,Ltd | 2.82% | $0.43 | 43.47% |
| 7148.KL | Duopharma Biotech Berhad | 2.82% | $0.04 | 40.32% |
| 8438.TW | Amia Co.,Ltd | 2.82% | $1.30 | 78.73% |
| 9304.T | The Shibusawa Warehouse Co., Ltd. | 2.82% | $35.90 | 36.66% |
| SANOFI.BO | Sanofi India Limited | 2.82% | $117.02 | 81.35% |
| 9742.T | INES Corporation | 2.81% | $54.87 | 87.98% |
| CNH | CNH Industrial N.V. | 2.81% | $0.26 | 55.11% |
| FLUG-B.CO | Flügger group A/S | 2.81% | $8.95 | 46.55% |
| LNF.TO | Leon's Furniture Limited | 2.81% | $0.79 | 31.40% |
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| 298690.KS | Air Busan Co., Ltd. | 2.80% | $49.26 | 10.96% |
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| 6953.TWO | Gudeng Equipment Co., Ltd. | 2.80% | $5.99 | 78.26% |
| 7752.T | Ricoh Company, Ltd. | 2.80% | $38.53 | 35.99% |
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| 9433.T | KDDI Corporation | 2.80% | $75.80 | 40.77% |
| MTEL.JK | PT Dayamitra Telekomunikasi Tbk. | 2.80% | $18.45 | 70.48% |
| 2027.TW | Ta Chen Stainless Pipe Co., Ltd. | 2.79% | $1.00 | 38.56% |
| 5032.KL | Bintulu Port Holdings Berhad | 2.79% | $0.15 | 50.65% |
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| 6750.T | Elecom Co., Ltd. | 2.79% | $47.98 | 38.00% |
| 9607.SR | ASG Plastic Factory Co. | 2.79% | $1.20 | 28.09% |
| BNII.JK | PT Bank Maybank Indonesia Tbk | 2.79% | $5.86 | 28.55% |
| BTPS.JK | PT Bank BTPN Syariah Tbk | 2.79% | $33.70 | 22.52% |
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| KMDA | Kamada Ltd. | 2.79% | $0.20 | 56.42% |
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